Uncertainty is the real enemy
Taylor said the market is getting hit from multiple directions at once, and no single factor is solely to blame.
“With the Iranian war, constricted trade flows, high oil prices, inflation, everyone’s being more conservative,” he said. “That keeps prices at bay.”
Softwood lumber imports from Canada are already carrying a combined duty penalty of 45%, while European lumber faces a 10% tariff. Those costs have driven up input costs for builders even as demand for new homes stays sluggish. Taylor noted that housing starts have declined every year since their 2021 peak, and he expects 2026 to be no different.
Higher oil prices are making things worse at every stage of the construction supply chain, from logging crews through to the lumber yard.
“Higher oil prices, that’s going to impact all the way through the supply chain,” Taylor said. “Loggers, truck drivers, mills, transportation, market distribution, all the way to the customer.”
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