“Truthfully, people are still getting great rates in the low sixes,” he said. “So I think if we were mid-high six, low sevens, it’d be a whole different ballgame.”
Read more: Homebuyers brace to pivot as 94% tie 2026 plans to rate relief
The February that got away
Earlier this year it looked like the market might finally catch fire. Rates fell sharply toward the end of February, and both purchase and refinance activity responded immediately. Then came fresh escalation in the Iran conflict, rates reversed course, and the momentum vanished.
“February refinances were obviously very strong,” Bolling said. “For the majority of us who’ve been in the business, it was strong, but the purchase market was on fire for February and it calmed down. It’s certainly not what we were hoping. I think we were all hoping those rates would stick and we were just going to get a really nuclear spring-summer market.”
The MBA’s latest forecast offers little comfort, projecting the 30-year fixed to stay in a 6.0%–6.3% range for the remainder of 2026. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is more optimistic, projecting rates could average 5.99% by year’s end – a number that, as it turns out, carries particular significance for borrowers.
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